29/06/2026 06:24 - Economia
The first half of 2026 showed positive results in terms of disinflation and reserve accumulation by Argentina's Central Bank (locally known as BCRA), but also revealed weakness in economic activity according to the latest analysis bulletin. The question everyone is asking now is: what will happen with the dollar in the next six months?
For context: Argentina has a dual currency system where the US dollar plays a crucial role in savings and commerce. The 'dólar oficial' (official dollar) is the regulated exchange rate, while parallel markets exist with different rates.
In June 2026, the official exchange rate showed signs of life after months of lagging. According to market data, the dollar reached $1,479 Argentine pesos on Wednesday of the last week, its highest price since November 2025. The gain was nearly 5% during the month.
However, in the total trajectory of 2026, the rise adjusts to only $22 pesos or 1.5%, compared to accumulated inflation near 16% in the first semester. This gap explains why savers found the dollar a losing bet in recent months.
Source: Infobae
Market operators identified several factors explaining the recent rise:
The futures market in Argentina allows investors to hedge against or speculate on exchange rate movements. These contracts provide insight into market expectations.
| Period | Projected Price | Variation | BCRA Band Ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|
| End of June 2026 | $1,478 | - | $1,803 |
| End of July 2026 | $1,504 | +1.8% | $1,841 |
| December 2026 | $1,653 | +11.8% (6 months) | - |
These values remain below the BCRA's exchange rate band ceiling, suggesting an orderly correction without crisis.
"Going forward, while crude prices fell, it's relevant to mention that hydrocarbon production continues with bullish perspectives, so those flows should continue supporting through the medium term," the economist commented. Foreign currency income from energy and agriculture will remain key to sustaining the exchange rate correction.
"December futures trade around $1,653. That curve implies an annual rate of 24%, well below projected inflation of 32% according to the REM Top 10 median," he explained. The market anticipates an exchange rate lag of about 16% by year-end.
Botto added that "the base scenario remains that of an orderly correction, without crisis, while foreign currency income from energy, agriculture, and private financing continues."
"With the second half about to begin, consensus grows that a period of lower supply and a dollar slide closer to inflation pace could unfold. Far from concerning—especially if BCRA's daily purchases extend—this could be welcome to sustain external sector vigor," he stated.
Argentina's National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) reported that the balance of payments registered a current account deficit of USD 1,651 million in Q1 2026, while the financial account showed a net capital inflow of USD 2,398 million.
"The current account deficit reduced from Q1 2025 (USD 5,158 million), mainly due to improved trade balance, which went from USD 2,060 million to USD 6,339 million, with exports growing 17.2% year-over-year and imports falling 6.4% YoY," the report specified.
The services account registered a deficit of USD 4,028 million, mainly explained by a tourism deficit of USD 3,184 million.
According to BBVA Research estimates cited by Ámbito, inflation would reach 29% by late 2026 and moderate to 20% in 2027, in a context of lower financial volatility, greater exchange stability, and continued fiscal equilibrium.
The disinflation process would continue gradually in the medium and long term, though negative real rates for peso deposits remain a factor of attention for analysts.
Scenario A: Lower dollar inflow pressures the wholesale market (MULC), BCRA tightens financial conditions, and the TAMAR rate becomes positive.
Scenario B: Disinflation continues its course, reducing the negative real component of TAMAR.
Scenario C: Seasonal reversal after winter vacations, with liquidity returning to the financial system.
Source: Parakeet
The second half of 2026 presents itself as a transition period where the dollar will take center stage. The combination of lower seasonal foreign currency supply, persistent inflation, and negative real rates suggests the exchange rate will continue correcting its lag. However, market consensus anticipates an orderly correction, without abrupt jumps, supported by foreign currency income from the energy and agro-export sectors.
BCRA has accumulated about USD 11 billion in 2026 in foreign currency purchases in the market, granting it margin to manage the transition.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
