24/06/2026 03:57 - Economia
The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) has significantly reduced its daily purchases of foreign currency. This shift suggests a cooling in the supply of dollars that had previously buoyed the economy. Purchases dropped from an average of USD 138 million daily in April and May to just USD 79 million in June, hitting a low of USD 50 million on Monday, June 22, 2026.
The wholesale exchange rate—crucial for imports and exports—rose 3.8% in June alone, significantly higher than the estimated inflation of 2.1%. This accumulation of 5.1% over the last month signals to analysts that an ordered devaluation may be on the horizon for the second half of 2026.
Current Exchange Rates (June 2026):
The Country Risk index—a measure of the likelihood of default on sovereign debt—rose to 433 basis points, increasing by 12 units. This moves the index away from the 8-year low of 425 points reached recently (the lowest since April 2018).
Gross reserves of the BCRA stand at USD 47.508 billion, while private sector demand for dollars exceeds USD 2 billion monthly.
Argentine stocks listed on Wall Street experienced declines of up to 4.4%, reflecting global volatility.
| Stock | Variation |
|---|---|
| Edenor | -4.4% |
| Grupo Financiero Galicia | -3.7% |
| Macro | -3.4% |
| TGS | -3.4% |
The S&P Merval (Argentina's main stock index) fell 0.9% in pesos and 2.5% in dollar terms. Internationally, markets were also red: Nasdaq -3.3%, S&P 500 -1.5%, Dow Jones -0.1%, with a sharp drop in South Korea's Kospi -10%.
Despite market jitters, the Argentine economy grew 0.7% in the first quarter of 2026, driven by the energy sector (specifically the Vaca Muerta shale formation), manufacturing, and services. However, delinquency rates reached 12.1% in April 2026, the highest level since 2004.
Globally, the US Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.75%, with an 89% probability of a hike, pressuring emerging markets.
Oil prices fell from USD 110 to under USD 80, impacting export revenues for Argentina's energy sector, which had projected USD 11 billion in exports for 2026.
Consultancies anticipate an ordered exchange rate correction for the second half of 2026 as the government aims to maintain macroeconomic stability amidst an estimated June inflation of 2.1%.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
