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Inflation Expectations: Consultants Predict Index Could Drop Below 2% in June

14/07/2026 06:37 - Economia

A Clear Deceleration in Inflation

According to projections from various private consulting firms, inflation in June 2026 in Argentina would have broken the 2% floor, settling in a range of 1.8% to 1.9%. This data represents an improvement compared to the 2.1% registered in May of this same year.

Context for Foreigners: The Market Expectations Survey (REM) is a monthly report published by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), gathering forecasts from top economists. The REM projects inflation between 1.8% and 2.1% for July, and 1.8% for August.

Factors Influencing Prices

The price landscape shows a mix of variables that pushed both upward and downward during the last month.

Upward Factors

  • Gas and water tariffs: increased by 3%.
  • Transportation: rose between 4.1% and 8.6%.
  • Vegetables: suffered a 10.4% increase in June.

Downward Factors

  • Food: slowed down its pace from 2.8% to 1.5% in the last 30 days.
  • Electricity: registered a moderate increase of 1.5%.
  • Fuels: could have fallen by 16%, although the rebound in Brent crude oil prices due to Middle East tensions limited this drop.

Long-Term Outlook and Government Optimism

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that inflation will close 2026 at 25%, with the goal of reaching single digits by 2028. In this context of deceleration, the country risk—a financial indicator measuring the risk of investing in a country, which affects its borrowing costs—continues its downward trend, generating a climate of optimism in the national government.

Price stability is a fundamental pillar for economic growth, and these projections suggest an encouraging path toward monetary stability that would bring many benefits to Argentine families.

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Alfredo's Column Alfredo S. Quiroga

Alfredo S. Quiroga