15/06/2026 06:28 - Tecnologia
Asteroide rocoso viajando por el espacio oscuro hacia un planeta Tierra azul visible en la distancia, superficie irregular con cráteres, iluminación dramática
NASA is keeping a close watch on asteroid 2024 YR4, a rocky body classified as a Near-Earth Object (NEO) whose orbital trajectory has captured the attention of the international scientific community.
Estimates indicate this asteroid has a size of between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, a dimension comparable to a building between 10 and 30 stories tall. While it does not represent an existential threat to humanity, its size is sufficient to cause significant damage in case of impact.
Refined orbital calculations establish that on December 22, 2032, there exists a window of possible collision with Earth. However, NASA has clarified that the current probability is extremely low.
| Data | Information |
|---|---|
| Asteroid Name | 2024 YR4 |
| Estimated Size | 40 to 90 meters in diameter |
| Potential Impact Date | December 22, 2032 |
| Current Probability | Above 1% (activation threshold) |
| Classification | Near-Earth Object (NEO) |
The object has exceeded the 1% probability threshold, a technical limit that automatically activates international notification protocols according to guidelines established by NASA and other scientific institutions.
In 2016, NASA created the Planetary Defense Coordination Office, responsible for monitoring and coordinating responses to potential space threats. This office works with observatories worldwide to detect and track potentially hazardous asteroids.
The main surveillance systems include:
To evaluate risks, NASA uses two key computer systems:
Analyzes orbits of known asteroids and calculates long-term impact risks.
Evaluates newly detected objects to determine if they pose immediate danger.
Scientific models suggest different scenarios depending on the final size of the object and the impact point:
It would likely explode in the atmosphere, generating a shock wave capable of breaking windows and causing minor structural damage in populated areas.
It could generate a more severe impact with significant effects on urban areas and their surroundings, especially in case of direct impact.
Ocean impact: Experts consider tsunami generation unlikely due to the object's size.
In 2022, NASA carried out the DART mission (Double Asteroid Redirection Test), a historic milestone in planetary defense. The objective was to collide a spacecraft with Dimorphos, a small asteroid orbiting around another called Didymos.
✅ The test was successful: The spacecraft managed to alter Dimorphos's orbit, demonstrating that humanity possesses the necessary technology to deflect potentially dangerous space objects.
This advancement represents a crucial tool for future threats. If an asteroid poses a real risk, humanity already has the technical capacity to modify its trajectory.
According to the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the system currently registers:
NASA assures there is no major impact threat for the next 100 years.
Scientists continue refining orbital calculations of asteroid 2024 YR4 using ground-based telescopes and advanced computational models. Each new observation allows updating impact probabilities with greater precision.
The Minor Planet Center (MPC) gathers all information and measurements made by observatories from different countries, coordinating international monitoring efforts.
📌 Important: Adjustments in probabilities constitute a normal part of the data update process and should not be interpreted as a sign of imminent threat. The scientific community maintains constant monitoring to guarantee planetary safety.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
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