13/07/2026 19:14 - Economia
July 13, 2026 - According to projections from private consultants and data collected by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA, by its Spanish acronym), inflation in June 2026 consolidates a downward trend, settling in a range of 1.8% to 1.9%, breaking the 2% barrier for the first time. This data represents an improvement compared to the 2.1% registered in May. Projections for July range from 1.8% to 2.1%, and 1.8% for August.
The Consumer Price Index (IPC in Spanish) is the key metric used to measure inflation in Argentina, reflecting the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services.
Fuel prices could have registered a significant drop of 16% if not for the rebound in the Brent oil barrel price, which was affected by rising tensions in the Middle East. Despite this, the Argentine government remains optimistic. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects an annual inflation close of 25% for 2026, expecting the country to reach single-digit inflation by 2028.
The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) has deployed a shield of measures with a firepower of 20 billion USD to keep the dollar anchored at 1,500 ARS (Argentine Pesos). Currently, the official exchange rate stands at 1,515 ARS at Banco Nación, Argentina's largest state-owned bank.
This scenario of low inflation and exchange rate stability makes 'carry trade' highly attractive for foreign investors. This strategy involves borrowing in a low-interest currency and investing in a high-yield one, taking advantage of Argentine fixed-term deposit rates that oscillate between 16% and 19.5% TNA (Annual Nominal Rate in Spanish).
The Argentine country risk indicator is currently near 400 basis points, reaching its lowest level since April 2018, with a 29.4% drop so far in 2026.
Country Risk is a financial indicator that measures the probability that a nation will default on its sovereign debt payments. A lower number indicates greater international confidence in the country's economy.
The government has already paid 4.2 billion USD in debt and plans to launch the Bonar 2029 (an Argentine sovereign bond) for 2 billion USD on July 15, 2026, further consolidating its re-entry into international credit markets.
Alfredo S. Quiroga
