26/06/2026 18:41 - Economia
Pressure on Argentina's foreign exchange market increased significantly in recent weeks, in a context where the US dollar strengthens globally due to geopolitical and financial factors. This global appreciation of the American currency directly affects emerging countries like Argentina, whose economy is especially sensitive to exchange rate variations.
The conflict in the Middle East acts as a backdrop to this financial volatility, generating movements in international markets that amplify uncertainty. According to consulting firm 1816, during the last month and a half, currency, debt, and commodities markets presented unusual volatility driven by external and internal factors.
All values expressed in Argentine pesos (ARS)
| Dollar Type | Rate | June Variation |
|---|---|---|
| Wholesale | $1,477 | +$69 (4.8%) |
| Official Retail | $1,495 | +$65 (4.5%) |
| Blue Dollar | $1,530 | +$100 (5.2%) |
| CCL | $1,554 | - |
For foreign readers, it's important to understand that Argentina operates with multiple exchange rates due to strict capital controls known locally as cepo cambiario:
Official Dollar: The government-regulated rate used for imports, exports, and official transactions. Split into wholesale (for banks) and retail (for individuals).
Blue Dollar: The informal parallel market rate where individuals can freely buy and sell dollars. Typically higher than the official rate.
CCL (Contado con Liquidación): A financial dollar rate obtained by buying Argentine assets in pesos and selling them abroad for dollars.
Facing this scenario, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) adopted new strategies to contain devaluation expectations. The measures implemented include:
1. Reduced dollar purchases: The Central Bank slowed its dollar acquisitions in the Free Exchange Market (MLC) to prevent a larger jump in the exchange rate. In June, purchases totaled USD 1,296 million, well below the USD 2,596 million from May.
2. Sale of dollar-linked bonds: These are bonds whose value adjusts with the official dollar exchange rate. By selling them, BCRA obtains pesos to strengthen reserves and channels hedging demand through these instruments.
According to Bavsa, currency coverage "is showing a change in composition": while BCRA reduces its short position in futures, dollar-linked bond issuance by the Treasury increases, reaching 76% of total coverage with USD 10,512 million as of June 22.
The dollar's global appreciation responds to multiple combined factors:
Geopolitical tension generates risk aversion and flight to safe-haven assets like the US dollar.
Oscillations in raw material prices and tech stocks amplify uncertainty in emerging markets.
Investors seek protection against financial volatility, increasing dollar demand.
Emilio Botto, Head of Strategy and Investments at Mills Capital, noted that the official dollar "begins to show signs it wants to move." With projected inflation of 32% annually according to the REM Top 10 median and December futures at $1,653, there's an estimated exchange rate lag of 16%.
Reference Calculation: To match accumulated inflation, with an estimated 2.1% for June, the dollar should be near $1,709, according to Botto.
CIMA warns that the second half of the year tends to be less favorable in terms of foreign currency generation due to seasonality and lower commodity prices. The consulting firm states that "the main adjustment variable for a stable current account surplus must be a higher real exchange rate, releasing currency control restrictions."
The dollar's rise in Argentina occurs at a particular time of year:
The baseline scenario, according to analysts, "remains one of orderly correction, without crisis, while foreign currency inflows continue from energy, agriculture, and private financing." The main factors to monitor are potential inflation acceleration or reduced dollar supply.
Source: Infobae | Data from consulting firms 1816, Bavsa, CIMA, and Mills Capital
Alfredo S. Quiroga
