15/06/2026 09:42 - Economia
Pantallas de trading financiero mostrando gráficos de barras verdes ascendentes representando ganancias bursátiles, con un mapa del mundo en el fondo resaltando Medio Oriente y el Estrecho de Ormuz, ambiente profesional de bolsa de valores
Global financial markets reacted with euphoria on Monday following the announcement of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran, ending more than three months of conflict in the Middle East. The news, confirmed by President Donald Trump on his 80th birthday, includes the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the most critical maritime route for global oil trade.
Context for international readers: The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Oman and Iran that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Approximately 20% of the world's petroleum passes through this strait, making it a chokepoint of immense strategic importance. Any blockage or threat to this passage historically causes massive volatility in global oil prices.
President Donald Trump announced the agreement through his social media platform Truth Social on Sunday, June 14, 2026, coinciding with his 80th birthday celebration. In his message, Trump authorized "the unrestricted opening of the Strait of Hormuz" and the immediate lifting of the US naval blockade.
"Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" – Donald Trump, June 14, 2026
| Aspect | Detail |
|---|---|
| Official Signing | June 19, 2026 in Geneva, Switzerland |
| Pending negotiations | 60 additional days for definitive agreement |
| Mediators | Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey |
| Strait of Hormuz | Immediate reopening without tolls |
| Conflict Duration | Since February 28, 2026 |
| Conflict casualties | More than 3,700 deaths |
According to data from LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group), open interest in Brent crude futures contracts plummeted nearly 17% so far in 2026, the fastest rate since at least 2009. This "capital aversion" was triggered by extreme volatility generated by contradictory messages about the Middle East war.
What is open interest? Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, such as futures or options, that have not been settled. A sharp decline indicates investors are exiting positions, often due to uncertainty or risk aversion.
Jeffrey Currie, former head of commodities at Goldman Sachs and senior advisor at Carlyle, explained: "Political uncertainty has made oil too volatile to hold. The decline in open interest so far in 2026 is the worst on record to date."
The International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves during the conflict. Japan contributed an additional 90 million barrels. Reserves at Cushing, Oklahoma fell to 21.6 million barrels, near the critical 20-million threshold.
Cushing, Oklahoma is known as the "Pipeline Crossroads of the World" and serves as the primary hub for US oil trading and storage. It is the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts.
Analysts warn that full normalization could take months. Stephen Innes from SPI Asset Management noted: "The reopening of Hormuz is a relief valve, not a complete peace dividend." Markets must calculate the gap between announcement and effective compliance with the agreement.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday. Markets assign more than 98% probability that rates will remain unchanged, according to CME FedWatch data. The oil price drop reduces inflationary risk and gives the Fed room to maintain its stance.
The Bank of Japan will announce on Tuesday a possible rate hike to 1%, the highest level in over 30 years.
Sources: Infobae | Infobae Markets | Ámbito | Reuters | AFP
Alfredo S. Quiroga
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