A Deal That Shakes the Markets
On August 28, 2026, Venezuelan authorities and the US administration announced a historic oil agreement that is already having effects on financial markets. Venezuela's sovereign bonds maturing in 2027 climbed to 54 cents per dollar, near their four-month high, according to Bloomberg data. The expectation of a debt restructuring that could exceed US$200 billion (up to US$229 billion according to VanEck estimates) is fueling investor optimism.
The pact involves the exploitation of more than 20% of Venezuela's reserves, the largest in the world with 303 billion barrels. In exchange, Venezuela cedes to the US for 100 years the rights to 17 oil fields with estimated reserves of 65 billion barrels.
Key Points of the Agreement
- Operating company: North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), controlled by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt, who is under investigation in Spain and Switzerland for money laundering and embezzlement of PDVSA funds.
- State participation: The Strategic Capital Office of the US Department of Defense will have a stake in NABEP and will secure crude purchases at cost price.
- Announced investment: US$100 billion.
- Current production: 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), less than half of what was extracted in 1998.
Mixed Reactions
Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, assured that the agreement will "considerably" increase oil production. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump promised that his country's oil reserves would double, reduced by the war against Iran to a level not seen since 1983. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright expressed that Washington wants "a lot of investment" in Venezuela.
However, criticism was not long in coming. Rafael Ramírez, former oil minister and former president of PDVSA, called the agreement "harmful" and warned that it cedes sovereignty over more than 23% of reserves. "A transitional government should not make such important decisions," he said, and called NABEP a "briefcase company" with no track record in the sector.
Economist Asdrúbal Oliveros considered it "premature to evaluate the agreement as if it were already a reality," noting that details on contractual architecture, guarantees, fiscal regime, and investment commitments are still missing. Opposition leader María Corina Machado issued a harsh warning: "The enemies of the United States in Venezuela are today in Miraflores."
Context: An Intervention That Changed Everything
This agreement is part of a complex scenario. The US military intervention in Venezuela on January 3, 2026 and the executive order of January 9 that channels oil revenues to a US Treasury bank (with US$16.2 billion accumulated by July from the sale of 222.7 million barrels) are key precedents. Additionally, in January 2026, the 2002 oil law was repealed and a new law was approved that waives control over production, processing, and marketing.
PDVSA's production, which reached 3.7 million bpd before Chavismo and hit a historic low of 400,000 bpd in 2020, now stands at 1.2 million bpd. The goal is to reach 1.5 million bpd in one or two years, and Jefferies estimates it could reach 2 million bpd in five years.
The Future of the Debt
The restructuring of Venezuelan debt is one of the most anticipated topics in the markets. VanEck estimates debt haircuts could range between 26% (if the opposition governs) and 83% (if there is political continuity). Meanwhile, Chevron plans to invest US$7 billion over five years to double its production, and Eni has also announced plans to increase output.
The agreement, which promises to transform the global energy map, continues to generate debate. While some see it as a historic opportunity to recover Venezuela's oil industry, others warn of its legal and sovereign implications. What is certain is that the markets are already voting with their dollars.