Argentina's economic activity registered a 0.8% monthly increase in June and a 2.7% year-on-year rise, according to the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) published by INDEC, the country's national statistics bureau. With this result, the first half of 2026 accumulated a growth of 1.9%, although the economy continues to show a 'sawtooth' pattern, with alternating months of ups and downs.
Which Sectors Drove Growth
The official report reveals that 12 out of 15 sectors that make up the EMAE showed year-on-year growth in June. The main drivers were:
- Fishing: +247.6% year-on-year, following the reactivation after the labor strike that affected the sector in 2025.
- Mining and quarrying: +15.6%, including oil and gas activity.
- Agriculture, livestock, and forestry: +4.6%.
Together, mining and agriculture contributed 1.1 percentage points to the index's year-on-year growth. Fishing added 0.44 points.
Other notable performers included financial intermediation (+5.1%), construction (+2.8%), manufacturing (+1.9%), and commerce (+0.8%).
Sectors Still in the Red
In contrast, three activities ended the month in negative territory:
- Public administration and defense: -1.5%.
- Electricity, gas, and water: -0.4%.
- Education: -0.1%.
These sectors together subtracted 0.1 percentage points from the year-on-year result.
Analysts' Perspective
Specialists agree that growth is concentrated in primary sectors, while labor-intensive activities remain behind. Gonzalo Carrera, from Equilibra, noted that 'after 2 months of decline, activity recovered 0.8% monthly and 2.7% year-on-year in June, driven by primary sectors.'
Sergio González, from Cohen Aliados Financieros, warned that 'the lagging sectors are precisely the most labor-intensive: industry, construction, and commerce concentrate the bulk of registered private employment.'
Gabriel Caamaño, from Outlier, detailed that 'the second quarter average was 0.9% below the first quarter, and June was 1.2% below December 2025.'
Official Reaction
Economy Minister Luis Caputo celebrated the data on his social media, highlighting that 'the trend-cycle indicator grew 0.2% monthly and accumulated 27 consecutive months of growth, making it the longest expansionary cycle since the one recorded between June 2009 and August 2011.'
President Javier Milei reposted Caputo's message and added that 'activity is flying,' while again criticizing journalists and economists.
Outlook for the Rest of the Year
Estimates from banks and consulting firms surveyed by the Central Bank project GDP growth of 2.7% for all of 2026. The World Bank, meanwhile, forecasts an expansion of 3.6% for the Argentine economy this year.
The economic team expects that the labor reform, the Fiscal Amnesty, and the concession of 9,000 kilometers of national highways will boost growth in the coming months, although only the highway concession has advanced as planned.