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Economic Projections: Inflation Outlook for Argentina in the Second Half of 2026

15/07/2026 10:01 - Economia

A Beacon of Hope for the Argentine Economy

Economic projections for the second half of 2026 are painting an encouraging picture for Argentina. As reported by El Destape Web, private consulting firms and banks participating in the Central Bank's survey anticipate a sustained deceleration of inflation.

The report released by the monetary authority on July 14, 2026 indicates that inflation for July will be 2%, staying below that level towards the end of the year. The accumulated inflation for 2026 is estimated to close around 30%.

Understanding the Context: What is the REM and the BCRA?

For our international readers, the BCRA (Banco Central de la República Argentina) is the Central Bank of Argentina, responsible for the country's monetary policy. The REM (Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado) is a monthly survey conducted by the BCRA that gathers projections from top banks, consultants, and research centers regarding key economic variables like inflation, exchange rates, and growth. It acts as a crucial thermometer for market expectations.

Monthly Inflation Projection

MonthInflation Projection
July 20262.0%
August 20261.8%
September 20261.8%
October 20261.7%
November 20261.7%
December 20261.8%

Key Macroeconomic Expectations

  • GDP Growth: The economy is expected to grow by 0.6% in the second quarter and 0.9% in the third and fourth quarters. For the entire year of 2026, a 3% expansion is projected, signaling a positive recovery.
  • Employment: The unemployment rate would stand at 7.7% in the second quarter and improve to 7.5% by the end of the year.
  • Exchange Rate: The official US Dollar exchange rate is expected to average 1,482 Argentine Pesos (ARS) in July, gradually ascending to 1,673 ARS by December.

The so-called 'Top 10' group, comprised of consulting firms with the highest historical accuracy, also foresees a downward trajectory, estimating a 1.9% inflation rate for June 2026 and similar values for the following months, reinforcing the optimistic outlook for the nation.

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Alfredo's Column Alfredo S. Quiroga

Alfredo S. Quiroga