The El Niño climate phenomenon is officially underway, and forecasters are closely watching its evolution. Argentina's National Meteorological Service (SMN) gives a near 100% probability that this warm phase will continue through the August-September-October quarter, with a moderate to strong intensity likely to last until at least the end of summer 2027.
This has led to the term Super El Niño appearing in recent discussions, though it is an informal label and not an official SMN classification. The phenomena promise an unusually rainy spring and summer for many regions, with potential impacts on agriculture and urban areas.
Forecast for Argentina's Core Agricultural Region
According to the Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario (BCR), the heart of the Pampas region could experience significantly higher rainfall compared to historical averages:
- October: nearly 30% above normal precipitation
- November: around 70% more
- December: a whopping 90% increase — almost double the typical amount
The most critical period will be between November and December, coinciding with wheat harvest and late soybean and corn planting. Frequent downpours could reduce the number of workable days in the fields, challenging even the most prepared producers.
La Plata and the Litoral Region: A Focus on Urban Flooding
In the city of La Plata, meteorologist Mauricio Saldívar warns that the biggest impacts will arrive with summer: December and January are expected to have precipitation anomalies of 40-50 mm above the monthly norm. Interestingly, major floods in La Plata occurred during La Niña or neutral years (like 2008 and the catastrophic 2013 event), but El Niño still brings persistent rain and the risk of overflowing rivers such as the Paraná and Uruguay in the Litoral.
Practical Recommendations for Farmers
Experts from Argentina's agricultural technology institute, INTA, have issued technical guidelines for the 2026-27 campaign:
- Prioritize early sowing to exploit soil moisture
- Maintain no-till farming due to risk of soil crusting
- Improve farm access roads and prepare high grounds for livestock in case of floods
- Monitor livestock health, especially for neonatal umbilical infections and leptospirosis vaccination
- Ensure compliance with anthrax vaccinations
Temperature and Heat Waves
El Niño often brings higher temperatures. In the strong event of 2015/16, winter 2015 was the warmest in 60 years. With Pacific water temperature anomalies at +1.8°C (up from +1.25°C a month ago), officials anticipate a mild end to winter and possible heatwaves next summer.
Both the SMN and the National Directorate of Health Emergencies (DINESA) stress the importance of following official forecasts and alerts to stay ahead of severe weather.