Understanding the Geopolitics
For the uninitiated, the conflict in Yemen is often described as a "proxy war"—a conflict where major powers support opposite sides to further their own interests without fighting each other directly. In this case, it is a struggle for regional hegemony between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia.
The control of the Bab al-Mandeb is crucial because it connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. Most of the oil and gas traveling from the Persian Gulf to Europe and Africa must pass through this point, making it a powerful tool for geopolitical leverage.
The Energy Domino Effect
The military escalation is not just a local tragedy; it is a global economic threat. The combination of Houthi attacks and Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (the world's most important oil transit chokepoint) has sent prices skyrocketing:
| Oil Prices: | Over $100 USD / Barrel |
| Natural Gas: | 80 EUR/MWh |
Diplomacy in New York
Amidst the 81st UN General Assembly, world leaders are scrambling for a solution. French President Emmanuel Macron has reportedly been coordinating efforts with Donald Trump in New York to find a way to reopen these vital maritime routes.
However, the response from the West appears fragmented. While Saudi Arabia has requested U.S. air support, the Trump administration has shown hesitation, potentially linking military intervention to the outcomes of the November midterms and current ammunition stockpiles. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has limited its support to providing tanker aircraft for defensive refueling.
Future Outlook: Two Possible Paths
Escalation Scenario
If the Houthis target the East-West pipelines of Saudi Arabia, oil could potentially jump to $120 USD, which might trigger an irreversible global inflationary crisis before the end of the year.
Diplomatic Scenario
There is hope that negotiations mediated by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner could lead to a post-midterm agreement. This might involve economic concessions to Tehran in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, finally stabilizing global energy prices.